Our Science
Three disciplines, one collaborative approach.
Draft · placeholder copyLed by local modellers and analysts working alongside decision-makers, CAMMISA combines three disciplines across eleven work packages — turning scattered data into scenarios that guide action.
Climate science
Linking temperature, rainfall, humidity and soil moisture to transmission — and building experimental short-term and decadal forecasts for the region.
Entomology
Quantifying how mosquito density, lifespan, biting rate and transmission efficiency vary across the region's distinct climate zones.
Analytics & modelling
Climate-sensitive transmission models and health-economics methods that estimate the future impact and cost of interventions under different scenarios.
Work packages
High-level overview — detail to follow- WP0
Governance & coordination
Consortium management, ethics and the five-year plan.
- WP1
Evidence review & synthesis
Consolidating epidemiology, entomology and climate drivers.
- WP2
User needs & decision contexts
Aligning the science with what decision-makers need.
- WP3
Climate data & downscaling
Region-specific climate variables at usable resolution.
- WP4
Entomology & vector dynamics
How climate shapes mosquito populations and behaviour.
- WP5
Transmission modelling
Climate-sensitive models of malaria, dengue and chikungunya.
- WP6
Short-term forecasting
Seasonal outlooks (6–12 months) to time responses.
- WP7
Health economics & costing
The cost and value of intervention strategies.
- WP8
Policy planning scenarios
Intervention scenarios over a 5–10 year horizon.
- WP9
Long-term scenarios
Multidecadal (30+ year) climate-and-disease futures.
- WP10
Capacity strengthening
Training and skills across the consortium's institutions.
Climate scenarios across the timescales that matter for decisions.
From ordering insecticide before a season to planning decades ahead, CAMMISA designs scenarios matched to real decision windows.
Timing the response
Short-term climate forecasts let programmes time indoor residual spraying and insecticide-treated net distribution ahead of each season — adapting a South African forecasting model for the wider region.
Planning interventions
Experimental decadal forecasts feed integrated disease-and-economic models, producing counterfactual baselines and intervention scenarios that weigh the health impact and cost of strategies over a five-to-ten-year horizon.
The long view
Multidecadal scenarios assess how climate change reshapes environmental receptivity, disease outcomes and the economics of control — the evidence needed to open long-term policy discussions today.
Working on climate and mosquito-borne disease in Southern Africa?
We welcome collaboration with researchers, decision-makers and partners across the region. Get in touch or subscribe for consortium updates.