Malaria
Plasmodium parasites carried by Anopheles. Transmission is highly sensitive to rainfall and temperature — the anchor of climate-health research in the region.
Transdisciplinary research · Sub-Saharan Africa
CAMMISA's way to better understand climate and its effects on disease.
CAMMISA unites mathematical modellers, climate scientists, entomologists, epidemiologists and health economists across eight institutions and five countries — building a shared picture of how a changing climate reshapes malaria, dengue and chikungunya.
Hover a country to see its partner institutions.
- Institutions
- 8
- Countries
- 5
- Diseases
- 3
- 2025 – 2029
- 5yr
Funded by the Wellcome Trust as part of the initiative Strengthening Health and Disease Modelling for Public Health Decision Making in Africa. Led by the Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA) at the University of Cape Town.
01The Challenge
Read more →Malaria is well documented here. Dengue and chikungunya are not.
In Southern Africa, malaria is transmitted by Anopheles mosquitoes, while dengue and chikungunya are spread mainly by Aedes aegypti. Yet data on the latter two remains scanty — even as chikungunya outbreaks are reported elsewhere on the continent.
Rising temperatures, shifting rainfall, rapid urbanisation and population movement are changing where these diseases can spread. Without a single resource to understand that risk, planning for it is difficult. CAMMISA is building the evidence base.
“Climate change impacts the transmission of diseases such as malaria, chikungunya and dengue — and those effects vary with the seasons.”
Dengue
A rapidly urbanising threat spread by Aedes aegypti, with outbreaks increasingly linked to extreme weather across urban and peri-urban settings.
Chikungunya
Spread by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, extending its range as warming temperatures open new suitable habitats across the region.
02Our Science
Read more →Three disciplines, one collaborative approach.
Led by local modellers and analysts working alongside decision-makers, CAMMISA combines climate science, entomology and mathematical modelling across eleven work packages — turning scattered data into scenarios that guide action.
Climate science
Linking temperature, rainfall, humidity and soil moisture to transmission — and building experimental short-term and decadal forecasts for the region.
Entomology
Quantifying how mosquito density, lifespan, biting rate and transmission efficiency vary across the region's distinct climate zones.
Analytics & modelling
Climate-sensitive transmission models and health-economics methods that estimate the future impact and cost of interventions under different scenarios.
03Scenarios over time
Climate scenarios across the timescales that matter for decisions.
From ordering insecticide before a season to planning decades ahead, CAMMISA designs scenarios matched to real decision windows.
6–12mo
WP6 · Short-term forecasting
Timing the response
Short-term climate forecasts let programmes time indoor residual spraying and insecticide-treated net distribution ahead of each season — adapting a South African forecasting model for the wider region.
5–10yr
WP8 · Policy planning
Planning interventions
Experimental decadal forecasts feed integrated disease-and-economic models, producing counterfactual baselines and intervention scenarios that weigh the health impact and cost of strategies over a five-to-ten-year horizon.
30yr+
WP9 · Long-term scenarios
The long view
Multidecadal scenarios assess how climate change reshapes environmental receptivity, disease outcomes and the economics of control — the evidence needed to open long-term policy discussions today.
04Publications
Read more →Peer-reviewed papers, preprints and policy briefs.
Everything CAMMISA publishes is listed here — journal articles, preprints, reports for national programmes, and the data and code behind them.
Two strands: selected prior work by our PIs and Co-PIs, and — as CAMMISA publishes — the outputs generated by the consortium itself.
Journal articles
Peer-reviewed research across the work packages.
Preprints
Early findings posted before peer review, so results reach the region sooner.
Reports & policy briefs
Short outputs written for national malaria programmes and regional bodies.
Data & code
Model code, climate datasets and documentation released alongside each paper.
News
View all →Latest from the consortium
Understanding what decision-makers need from the science
Building a framework to align each work package with real user needs.
Reviewing malaria, dengue and chikungunya across the region
A consolidated review of epidemiology, entomology, climate drivers and policy.
Inception workshop lays the foundations for CAMMISA
Consortium members meet to agree governance, contributions and the five-year plan.
Working on climate and mosquito-borne disease in Southern Africa?
We welcome collaboration with researchers, decision-makers and partners across the region. Get in touch or subscribe for consortium updates.